PassionateCentrist

One thing I've noticed in the analysis of the presidential campaign for 2008 is that there are few talking heads in the major media who veer away from the conventional wisdom. The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire in the 2008 campaign are seen increasing in the ever-changing compact schedule. But no one really knows how the changes are going to play out. If there were odds offered somewhere I'd be betting that it works the other way and states later in the month have more impact than the conventional wisdom thinks. I'm not sure those later states are going to matter, but it seems few give that idea any credit.

But the Wall Street Journal today has a story about how candidates are spending money in more than Iowa and New Hampshire. The Republicans especially are spending money elsewhere, with Giuliani spending money big in Florida. Obama has enough money to be a factor even if Iowa and New Hampshire don't go well - and he's spend a lot elsewhere. I think that shows this may not play out as Iowa/New Hampshire or nothing as a result.

"Thompson has begun outlining a plan that would slow the growth rate of benefits and tie future cost-of-living adjustments to the cost of goods, which rise at a slower rate than wages."

He's not exactly my favorite candidate, but I sure hope he doesn't cave to the conventional wisdom and actually talks about Social Security and Medicare. A healthy debate about adjusting the inflation metrics used for social security would go a long way. We'll see if it happens.